September 12, 2018

Experimental Methods + Statistics in Online Attribution with R

Who am I ?

Different Approaches to Attribution

Rule-Based: Canned Approaches

Some Examples:

  • Last Interaction
  • First Interaction
  • Last Non-Direct Click
  • Linear Attribution
  • Time Decay
  • Position Based

Ad-hoc Pre-Post Testing

An example:

  • We track the same customers' sales over a two 2-week period in which our Facebook ad was and was not live
    • We then compare sales or conversion between these two time periods for the same customer (i.e., repeated measures)
  • We can also treat ad_exposure as a predictor along with some other likely important factors (i.e., purchase hx, buying segment, days of week)
    • Use more advanced modeling techniques to predict conversion or revenue

Statistical Approaches:

  • Similar to what we will see for A/B test in basic form, but more limited inferences (not causal)
  • Utilize more complicated machine learning models (i.e., glm, random forest, or xgBoost model) more on this soon !

Some Modeling Options

A/B Testing & Experimental Methods

The 3rd Variable Problem:

  • Cities with more churches have higher crime rates. But what about population?