###### Agenda

- Who am I?
- Different Approaches to Attribution
- Rule-Based: Canned Approaches
- Ad-hoc Pre-Post Testing
- A/B Testing & Experimental Methods
- Markov Chain Models in R

September 12, 2018

- Who am I?
- Different Approaches to Attribution
- Rule-Based: Canned Approaches
- Ad-hoc Pre-Post Testing
- A/B Testing & Experimental Methods
- Markov Chain Models in R

Some Examples:

- Last Interaction
- First Interaction
- Last Non-Direct Click
- Linear Attribution
- Time Decay
- Position Based

An example:

- We track the same customers' sales over a two 2-week period in which our Facebook ad was and was not live
- We then compare sales or conversion between these two time periods for the same customer (i.e., repeated measures)

- We can also treat ad_exposure as a predictor along with some other likely important factors (i.e., purchase hx, buying segment, days of week)
- Use more advanced modeling techniques to predict conversion or revenue

Statistical Approaches:

- Similar to what we will see for A/B test in basic form, but more limited inferences (not causal)
- Utilize more complicated machine learning models (i.e., glm, random forest, or xgBoost model) more on this soon !

The 3rd Variable Problem:

- Cities with more churches have higher crime rates. But what about population?